Leaderboards / Biggest upsets Biggest upsets
The biggest UFC upsets of 2026, by how long the winner's closing price was. Updated after every card.
All years
2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020
# Winner Closing price Chance How Date
1
Sean Sharaf over Gable Steveson +850
10%
KO/TKO, round 1 (0:12)
Sep 19, 2026
2
Jeremiah Wells over Myktybek Orolbai +750
11%
submission, round 3
Aug 15, 2026
3
Tresean Gore over Azamat Bekoev +550
15%
submission, round 3
Apr 4, 2026
4
Dustin Stoltzfus over Mansur Abdul-Malik +485
16%
submission, round 2
Aug 15, 2026
5
Kevin Borjas over Andre Lima +482
16%
decision, 3 rounds
Jun 20, 2026
6
Cody Durden over Jafel Filho +480
17%
decision, 3 rounds
Apr 25, 2026
7
Song Yadong over Umar Nurmagomedov +440
18%
KO/TKO
Aug 29, 2026
9
Sean Strickland over Khamzat Chimaev Title +375
20%
decision, 5 rounds
May 9, 2026
10
Justin Gaethje over Ilia Topuria Title +350
21%
KO/TKO, round 4
Jun 14, 2026
11
Jordan Leavitt over Yadier del Valle +322
23%
decision, 3 rounds
Feb 21, 2026
12
Gaston Bolanos over Michael Aswell Jr. +315
23%
decision, 3 rounds
Jun 20, 2026
13
Jamall Emmers over Lerryan Douglas +310
23%
KO/TKO
Aug 22, 2026
14
King Green over Daniel Zellhuber +300
24%
KO/TKO, round 2
Feb 28, 2026
15
Brady Hiestand over Rinya Nakamura +290
25%
submission (rear naked choke), round 2 (4:07)
Sep 26, 2026
17
Chidi Njokuani over Joel Alvarez +275
25%
decision, 3 rounds
Aug 15, 2026
18
Eric McConico over Rodolfo Vieira +275
26%
decision, 3 rounds
Apr 25, 2026
19
Alatengheili over John Castaneda +270
26%
split decision
Sep 26, 2026
20
Gilbert Urbina over Vlasto Cepo +270
26%
KO/TKO, round 1
Aug 1, 2026
22
Tofiq Musayev over Ignacio Bahamondes +260
27%
decision, 3 rounds
Mar 28, 2026
23
Tom Nolan over Fares Ziam +255
27%
decision, 3 rounds
Jun 6, 2026
24
Ilimbek Akylbek over Mahammadali Osmanli +250
27%
DQ, round 1 (2:19)
Sep 26, 2026
25
Pavel Andrusca over Nathaniel Wood +240
28%
Decision - Unanimous
Sep 5, 2026
26
Ion Cutelaba over Oumar Sy +240
28%
submission, round 1
Mar 14, 2026
27
Alexa Grasso over Manon Fiorot +230
29%
unanimous decision
Sep 12, 2026
28
Lawrence Lui over Sulangrangbo Title +220
30%
decision, 3 rounds
Jan 31, 2026
29
Sean Strickland over Anthony Hernandez +220
30%
KO/TKO, round 3
Feb 21, 2026
30
Vicente Luque over Kelvin Gastelum +220
30%
submission, round 1
Apr 11, 2026
31
Jim Miller over Jared Gordon +215
30%
submission, round 1
May 9, 2026
32
Nathaniel Wood over Losene Keita +215
30%
decision, 3 rounds
Mar 21, 2026
33
Patricio Pitbull over Dooho Choi +212
31%
KO/TKO, round 1 (3:28)
Sep 19, 2026
34
John Yannis over Jamie Siraj +210
31%
KO/TKO, round 1
Apr 18, 2026
35
Tofiq Musayev over Ludovit Klein +205
31%
KO/TKO, round 2
Aug 1, 2026
36
Paulo Costa over Azamat Murzakanov +205
31%
KO/TKO, round 3
Apr 11, 2026
37
Juan Diaz over Malcolm Wellmaker +202
31%
submission, round 2
May 16, 2026
38
Kaan Ofli over Yizha +200
32%
decision, 3 rounds
Jan 31, 2026
39
Danny Silva over Kurtis Campbell +200
32%
KO/TKO, round 2
Mar 21, 2026
40
Roman Kopylov over Ateba Gautier +200
32%
KO/TKO, round 1 (3:12)
Oct 3, 2026
41
Justin Gaethje over Paddy Pimblett Title +200
32%
decision, 5 rounds
Jan 24, 2026
43
Brandon Royval over Lone'er Kavanagh +195
32%
submission, round 3
Jul 11, 2026
45
Talita Alencar over Julia Polastri +195
32%
decision, 3 rounds
Apr 25, 2026
47
Kaan Ofli over Javier Reyes +185
33%
submission, round 1
Jun 27, 2026
48
Rodolfo Bellato over Luke Fernandez +184
34%
KO/TKO, round 1
Mar 7, 2026
49
Jose Montanha over Louie Sutherland +180
34%
submission, round 1
Aug 8, 2026
The closing price is the median of the main US books at the close; the chance is that price with the bookmaker's margin taken out. Fights with no recorded closing odds aren't included.