Research
Studies of UFC results and betting odds: what was measured, on how many fights, and what came out.
Data study · Sep 24, 2026 · 6 min read
How much of a UFC result is the matchup? What 194 rematches show
The winner of the first fight won 59% of 194 UFC rematches. With each fighter's form separated from the pairing, the matchup effect comes out at about two-thirds the size of the skill gap, and what happens on the night outweighs both.
Data study · Jul 23, 2026 · 6 min read
How often the round 1 winner wins a UFC fight
Across about 8,600 UFC fights, 28% end in round 1. In fights that reach round 2, the round 1 winner wins 68% of the time: 62% after a close round, 86% after a lopsided one.
Market study · Jul 22, 2026 · 7 min read
UFC opening odds vs closing odds: 2,040 fights compared
The closing line picked the winner 67.8% of the time, the opening line 65.4%. Openers avoid extreme prices, the median fight moves 5.3 points between open and close, and 13% change favorite.
Data study · Jul 21, 2026 · 6 min read
Does reach matter in the UFC? Win rates by reach advantage
Across about 6,600 UFC bouts, the fighter with the longer reach wins 52% of the time. An edge of one to three inches is close to a coin flip; at six inches or more it is about 59%.
Data study · Jul 20, 2026 · 7 min read
Age and decline in UFC fighters: when it starts and what goes first
When the two fighters differ in age, the younger one wins 57% of the time, about 1.5 points per year of age gap. Win rates start falling in the early 30s. Losses by knockout double from the mid-20s to the late 30s; losses by submission stay near 10%.
Market study · Jul 18, 2026 · 6 min read
How accurate are UFC closing odds? A check of 4,500 fighter appearances
Of 384 fighters with enough priced fights, 10 stood out from their odds, fewer than the 17 chance alone would produce, and beating the odds early didn't predict beating them later. The one consistent bias: heavy favorites returned +2.5% on a flat bet, heavy underdogs -40%.