Leaderboards / Biggest upsets Biggest upsets
The biggest UFC upsets since 2020, by how long the winner's closing price was. Updated after every card.
All years
2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020
# Winner Closing price Chance How Date
1
Sean Sharaf over Gable Steveson +850
10%
KO/TKO, round 1 (0:12)
Sep 19, 2026
2
Shana Dobson over Mariya Agapova +750
11%
KO/TKO, round 2
Aug 22, 2020
3
Raoni Barcelos over Payton Talbott +750
11%
decision, 3 rounds
Jan 18, 2025
4
Jeremiah Wells over Myktybek Orolbai +750
11%
submission, round 3
Aug 15, 2026
5
Mike Jackson over Dean Barry +650
13%
decision, 3 rounds
Apr 23, 2022
7
Julianna Pena over Amanda Nunes Title +600
14%
submission, round 2
Dec 11, 2021
8
Alexa Grasso over Valentina Shevchenko Title +600
14%
submission, round 4
Mar 4, 2023
9
Aiemann Zahabi over Javid Basharat +600
14%
decision, 3 rounds
Mar 2, 2024
10
Carlos Vera over Josias Musasa +550
15%
submission, round 1
Mar 15, 2025
11
Michael Johnson over Daniel Zellhuber +550
15%
decision, 3 rounds
Jul 19, 2025
12
Tresean Gore over Azamat Bekoev +550
15%
submission, round 3
Apr 4, 2026
14
Dustin Stoltzfus over Mansur Abdul-Malik +485
16%
submission, round 2
Aug 15, 2026
15
Kevin Borjas over Andre Lima +482
16%
decision, 3 rounds
Jun 20, 2026
16
Cody Durden over Jafel Filho +480
17%
decision, 3 rounds
Apr 25, 2026
17
Sean Strickland over Israel Adesanya Title +460
17%
decision, 5 rounds
Sep 9, 2023
18
Muin Gafurov over Rinya Nakamura +455
17%
decision, 3 rounds
Jan 18, 2025
19
Nicolas Dalby over Gabriel Bonfim +450
17%
KO/TKO, round 2
Nov 4, 2023
21
Rob Font over Kyler Phillips +447
17%
decision, 3 rounds
Oct 19, 2024
22
Song Yadong over Umar Nurmagomedov +440
18%
KO/TKO
Aug 29, 2026
26
Cody Brundage over Jacob Malkoun +420
18%
decision, 3 rounds
Sep 23, 2023
27
Jeka Saragih over Lucas Alexander +400
19%
KO/TKO, round 1
Nov 18, 2023
28
Ketlen Souza over Yazmin Jauregui +390
20%
submission, round 1
Sep 14, 2024
29
Shi Ming over Feng Xiaocan Title +390
20%
KO/TKO, round 3
Nov 23, 2024
31
Anthony Smith over Vitor Petrino +380
20%
submission, round 1
May 4, 2024
33
Joseph Morales over Alibi Idiris Title +375
20%
submission, round 2
Aug 16, 2025
34
Mitch Raposo over Azat Maksum +375
20%
decision, 3 rounds
Oct 25, 2025
35
Sean Strickland over Khamzat Chimaev Title +375
20%
decision, 5 rounds
May 9, 2026
36
Seokhyeon Ko over Oban Elliott +365
21%
decision, 3 rounds
Jun 21, 2025
37
Victor Henry over Raoni Barcelos +360
21%
decision, 3 rounds
Jan 22, 2022
39
Chris Barnett over Jake Collier +350
21%
KO/TKO, round 2
Sep 10, 2022
40
Justin Gaethje over Ilia Topuria Title +350
21%
KO/TKO, round 4
Jun 14, 2026
41
Diego Ferreira over Mateusz Rebecki +345
22%
KO/TKO, round 3
May 11, 2024
42
Brendson Ribeiro over Diyar Nurgozhay +340
22%
submission, round 2
Mar 15, 2025
44
Kai Kara-France over Askar Askarov +330
22%
decision, 3 rounds
Mar 26, 2022
45
Ludovit Klein over Mason Jones +325
22%
decision, 3 rounds
Jul 23, 2022
46
Ethyn Ewing over Malcolm Wellmaker +325
22%
decision, 3 rounds
Nov 15, 2025
47
Jordan Leavitt over Yadier del Valle +322
23%
decision, 3 rounds
Feb 21, 2026
48
Petr Yan over Merab Dvalishvili Title +320
23%
decision, 5 rounds
Dec 6, 2025
49
Gaston Bolanos over Michael Aswell Jr. +315
23%
decision, 3 rounds
Jun 20, 2026
50
Ramiz Brahimaj over Billy Ray Goff +310
23%
submission, round 1
May 31, 2025
The closing price is the median of the main US books at the close; the chance is that price with the bookmaker's margin taken out. Fights with no recorded closing odds aren't included.