Biggest upsets

The biggest UFC upsets of 2025, by how long the winner's closing price was. Updated after every card.

#WinnerClosing priceChanceHowDate

1 Raoni Barcelos over Payton Talbott +750 11% decision, 3 rounds Jan 18, 2025

2 Carlos Vera over Josias Musasa +550 15% submission, round 1 Mar 15, 2025

3 Michael Johnson over Daniel Zellhuber +550 15% decision, 3 rounds Jul 19, 2025

4 Alonzo Menifield over Oumar Sy +508 16% decision, 3 rounds Jun 14, 2025

5 Muin Gafurov over Rinya Nakamura +455 17% decision, 3 rounds Jan 18, 2025

6 Daniel Rodriguez over Kevin Holland +450 17% decision, 3 rounds Jul 19, 2025

7 Deiveson Figueiredo over Montel Jackson +500 18% decision, 3 rounds Oct 11, 2025

8 Muslim Salikhov over Carlos Leal +380 20% KO/TKO, round 1 Jul 26, 2025

9 Joseph Morales over Alibi Idiris Title +375 20% submission, round 2 Aug 16, 2025

10 Mitch Raposo over Azat Maksum +375 20% decision, 3 rounds Oct 25, 2025

11 Seokhyeon Ko over Oban Elliott +365 21% decision, 3 rounds Jun 21, 2025

12 Brendson Ribeiro over Diyar Nurgozhay +340 22% submission, round 2 Mar 15, 2025

13 Ethyn Ewing over Malcolm Wellmaker +325 22% decision, 3 rounds Nov 15, 2025

14 Petr Yan over Merab Dvalishvili Title +320 23% decision, 5 rounds Dec 6, 2025

15 Ramiz Brahimaj over Billy Ray Goff +310 23% submission, round 1 May 31, 2025

16 Reinier de Ridder over Bo Nickal +298 24% KO/TKO, round 2 May 3, 2025

17 Alexander Hernandez over Chase Hooper +295 24% KO/TKO, round 1 Aug 16, 2025

18 Davey Grant over Da'Mon Blackshear +290 25% decision, 3 rounds Jul 26, 2025

19 Johnny Walker over Zhang Mingyang +285 25% KO/TKO, round 2 Aug 23, 2025

20 Alden Coria over Alessandro Costa +270 26% KO/TKO, round 3 Sep 13, 2025

21 Jakub Wiklacz over Patchy Mix +270 26% decision, 3 rounds Oct 4, 2025

22 Nicolas Dalby over Saygid Izagakhmaev +270 26% decision, 3 rounds Nov 22, 2025

23 Neil Magny over Jake Matthews +268 26% submission, round 3 Sep 27, 2025

24 Rongzhu over Kody Steele +265 26% decision, 3 rounds Feb 8, 2025

25 Tim Elliott over Kai Asakura +250 27% submission, round 2 Aug 16, 2025

26 Chris Duncan over Jordan Vucenic +252 27% submission, round 2 Mar 22, 2025

27 Yousri Belgaroui over Azamat Bekoev +240 28% KO/TKO, round 3 Oct 18, 2025

28 Ramiz Brahimaj over Austin Vanderford +240 28% submission, round 2 Oct 4, 2025

29 Derrick Lewis over Tallison Teixeira +233 29% KO/TKO, round 1 Jul 12, 2025

30 Andre Petroski over Rodolfo Vieira +228 29% decision, 3 rounds Feb 15, 2025

31 Billy Elekana over Ibo Aslan +225 29% decision, 3 rounds Jul 26, 2025

32 Christian Rodriguez over Austin Bashi +215 30% decision, 3 rounds Jan 11, 2025

33 Merab Dvalishvili over Umar Nurmagomedov Title +215 30% decision, 5 rounds Jan 18, 2025

34 Ricky Simon over Javid Basharat +215 31% KO/TKO, round 1 Feb 22, 2025

35 Klaudia Sygula over Irina Alekseeva +210 31% decision, 3 rounds Jun 21, 2025

36 Nasrat Haqparast over Esteban Ribovics +210 31% decision, 3 rounds Mar 1, 2025

37 Alex Pereira over Magomed Ankalaev Title +210 31% KO/TKO, round 1 Oct 4, 2025

38 Martin Buday over Marcus Buchecha +210 31% decision, 3 rounds Jul 26, 2025

39 Charles Johnson over Lone'er Kavanagh +205 31% KO/TKO, round 2 Aug 23, 2025

40 Djorden Santos over Danny Barlow +205 31% decision, 3 rounds Oct 18, 2025

41 Ailin Perez over Karol Rosa +205 31% decision, 3 rounds Jan 18, 2025

42 Juliana Miller over Ivana Petrovic +205 31% decision, 3 rounds May 3, 2025

43 Ode Osbourne over Luis Gurule +202 32% KO/TKO, round 2 Apr 5, 2025

44 Daria Zhelezniakova over Melissa Mullins +200 32% decision, 3 rounds Jun 21, 2025

45 Chris Duncan over Mateusz Rebecki +200 32% decision, 3 rounds Aug 2, 2025

46 Andre Fili over Christian Rodriguez +200 32% decision, 3 rounds Aug 9, 2025

47 Kyle Daukaus over Michel Pereira +200 32% KO/TKO, round 1 Aug 23, 2025

48 Manuel Torres over Grant Dawson +200 32% KO/TKO, round 1 Dec 6, 2025

49 Jared Cannonier over Gregory Rodrigues +200 32% KO/TKO, round 4 Feb 15, 2025

50 Diego Lopes over Jean Silva +198 32% KO/TKO, round 2 Sep 13, 2025

The closing price is the median of the main US books at the close; the chance is that price with the bookmaker's margin taken out. Fights with no recorded closing odds aren't included.