Allen vs. Duncan: the line has drifted toward Duncan, and our model goes further

Saturday's card at the Meta Apex is headlined by a five-round middleweight fight between No. 4 Brendan Allen and No. 10 Christian Leroy Duncan. It's Duncan's first UFC main event, and the betting market has come round to him since the fight was announced on Sept. 1.

Allen vs. Duncan: a price on the move

Allen opened at -210, a 66% chance once the bookmakers' margin is taken out. He is now -137 across five books, or 55%. Duncan has gone from +180 to +115, or 45%.

We couldn't find a report that explains the move. Our scouting turned up no weight, injury or camp news for either man. Since June, Allen has only competed in grappling. He won an ACBJJ All-Stars title in July and defended it with a heel hook on Magomedrasul Gasanov in late August, per Boxing News.

Duncan has won five straight. He out-landed Jared Cannonier 68 to 15 in July and Roman Dolidze 54 to 10 in March. But both men got him down: Cannonier 5 times in 8 tries, Dolidze 3 in 4. Dolidze took his back and held a body triangle until the final horn, per Cageside Press.

Allen has won three straight, the best of them late. He gave up his back twice to Reinier de Ridder, then reversed and ground him down. De Ridder's corner stopped it after round four. Against strikers it has been tighter: Edmen Shahbazyan out-landed him 90 to 89 in June and stopped three of his four takedown attempts.

What our model sees

Our model works from fight stats only and never sees the odds. It has Duncan at 62% and Allen at 38%, further toward Duncan than even the moved market.

The striking numbers are the likeliest reason. Duncan lands 58% of his significant strikes (93rd percentile) and absorbs only 2.36 a minute (89th). Allen's striking defence is 48% (22nd percentile), and both Marvin Vettori and Shahbazyan matched him on the feet.

What career averages handle less well is the distance. Every Duncan fight in our data was a three-rounder. In his last two, the third round turned into a wrestling match: Dolidze rode his back to the horn, and Cannonier held him on the fence. Allen's best work against de Ridder came in rounds two to four.

Our lean: Allen, narrowly. Duncan should take the early rounds at range. Allen's own takedowns are unreliable: 1 of 4 against Shahbazyan, 1 of 10 against Nassourdine Imavov. We think five rounds give him time to pin Duncan on the fence and grind some out. Cannonier and Dolidze both did.

Elsewhere, the model has Otari Tanzilovi at 70% (the market says 34%) and Matheus Camilo at 77% (market 64%). It also has Francisco Prado at 61% over Ismael Bonfim, a fight the market prices as a coin flip.

Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert

Camilo is -204 (64%), close to his -185 open.

He wins with wrestling more than his hands, and he's 25. He lands 4.16 takedowns per 15 minutes (95th percentile) but only 2.22 significant strikes a minute (6th). He went 5 of 10 on takedowns to beat Viacheslav Borshchev, but was outstruck 65 to 39 and faded late in round two. Last time out, a right hand as Nazim Sadykhov stepped in stopped him in 91 seconds, a stoppage Sadykhov disputed. Camilo was a +155 underdog in Baku.

Herbert, 38, is a boxer with a 77-inch reach. His right hand dropped Rolando Bedoya in 2024 and turned around his April fight with Mandel Nallo. Nallo dropped him twice inside the first minute, according to Cageside Press, before Herbert's counter right put Nallo down. Herbert finished it at 2:05.

The question is whether Camilo's takedowns land. Chris Padilla went 0 for 6 against Herbert last year and still won a split decision on clinch pressure. If Camilo's shots get stopped and he tires again, as he did against Borshchev, Herbert gets a long boxing match with a fading opponent.

Our lean: Camilo, on takedowns and control. Herbert's output is low too (3.24 significant strikes a minute), and Padilla beat him without landing a takedown.

Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi

This is the card's biggest model-versus-market gap. Wellmaker is -233 (66%), having opened at -240. Our model has Tanzilovi at 70%.

Wellmaker started 10-0, with two first-round knockouts in the UFC. The second was a right hook off a low-kick feint that put Kris Moutinho face first. Then he lost twice as a big favourite. Short-notice replacement Ethyn Ewing outworked him at featherweight, and Juan Díaz took him down five times before choking him out in May.

That's the likeliest reason for the model's number. Wellmaker has never landed a takedown in the UFC, and his takedown defence is 43% (11th percentile). He has gone past round two only once in the UFC, and lost that third round on every card. Heavy reported in July that he has moved to American Top Team.

Tanzilovi went 5 of 9 on takedowns in his debut against Shane Collins and landed 58 of 89 significant strikes. He still lost 30-27 on all three cards. He did little from top, Collins kept getting up, and Cageside Press said he "already looked a bit gassed" in the first round. He took that fight on about a week's notice after 16 months out.

Tanzilovi has one UFC fight, so the model's read on him rests on 15 minutes at featherweight.

Our lean: Tanzilovi, with less confidence than the model. On the feet Wellmaker has the power, and the feint into the right hook is his best shot at an early night. But if Tanzilovi's single leg works the way it did against Collins, Wellmaker hasn't yet shown he can stay up.

When it starts and where to watch

• Prelims: 5:00 PM ET, 2:00 PM PT, 10:00 PM UK, on Paramount+
• Main card: 8:00 PM ET, 5:00 PM PT, 1:00 AM UK (early Sunday), on Paramount+