Allen vs Duncan preview: can Brendan Allen get the kicker to the mat?

Brendan Allen is about to headline his fifth UFC card. Christian Leroy Duncan is headlining his first, and every decision of his UFC career went three rounds. On Saturday at the Meta Apex, the No. 4 and No. 10 middleweights meet over five, according to Cageside Press.

Allen opened at -210, a 66% chance once the bookmakers' margin is taken out. He is now -140, or 56%, with Duncan at +114. Lightweights Matheus Camilo and Jai Herbert hold the co-main, with Camilo a -200 favourite.

What Duncan brings

Duncan is a 6'2" switch-stance striker with a 79-inch reach, four inches longer than Allen's. He opens most fights with low kicks and front kicks to the legs, then goes looking for something spinning. A leg kick into a spinning back elbow rocked Eryk Anders, and punches finished him at 3:53 of the first round in August 2025. The same elbow staggered Jared Cannonier in July.

The spinning back fist is the other weapon. Against Marco Tulio last November, his first one missed, so he threw it again straight away. The second rocked Tulio, and punches ended it at 3:20 of round two. He closed +135 that night, the only one of his last five fights where he wasn't favoured.

He wastes little. He lands 58% of his significant strikes and absorbs just 2.36 a minute, both around the 90th percentile in our data. He out-landed Cannonier 68-15 and Roman Dolidze 54-10.

The door Allen wants to open

Those two fights also show where Duncan can be had. Cannonier went 5 of 8 on takedowns against him, and Dolidze 3 of 4. Dolidze pinned him on the fence for long spells in round two.

In round three Dolidze took the back with a body triangle. He had more than two and a half minutes of control in the round, according to Low Kick MMA. All three judges gave Dolidze that round.

Duncan has no submission attempts in 10 UFC fights. When he is taken down, he scrambles rather than attacks from his back. Against Tulio that worked: he turned a takedown into one of his own and took the back. Against Dolidze it didn't.

Allen's ground game is the sharpest part of his kit. He ranks in the 86th percentile for submission attempts and the 78th for control time. On top he settles into side control and half guard, sets up the arm-triangle and drops elbows.

The best example is Reinier de Ridder last October. Allen took that main event on about four weeks' notice and closed +175. De Ridder had his back with a body triangle in the first round. Allen survived, kept reversing to the top, won rounds two to four, and de Ridder refused to come out for the fifth.

Allen's problem: good defenders stuff the shot

The catch is that Allen's wrestling has stalled against people who defend it well. In September 2024 Nassourdine Imavov stuffed nine straight shots after the first round and outstruck him 57-30. In February 2025 Anthony Hernandez beat him in the scrambles and held 10:22 of control. Allen won the first round of both fights and lost the next two.

His last two wins looked different. Against Marvin Vettori and Edmen Shahbazyan he mostly stood and traded, leading with a busy jab and walking forward behind straights and hooks. He explained the approach after the Shahbazyan fight, per Cageside Press:

"Sometimes you gotta just be a dog and walk him."

Both fights were close on volume, 111-109 over Vettori and 89-90 against Shahbazyan. Allen went 1 of 4 on takedowns in June, and Shahbazyan clipped him with a combination as he threw a flying knee at the end of the first. His striking defence is 48%, in the 22nd percentile. A long trading fight is the one Duncan wants.

Durability and five rounds

Allen has been stopped before. Sean Strickland dropped him with a left hook and stopped him early in round two in November 2020, and Chris Curtis also beat him by TKO, per Sherdog.

Duncan has never been finished, and both of his losses went the distance. Low Kick MMA says Cannonier dropped him briefly in July, but Cageside's round-by-round doesn't mention it.

Five rounds is the bigger unknown. None of the reports we read show Duncan going past three. Over three he holds up well: he hurt Andrey Pulyaev late in round three and kept his pace on Cannonier in the last round.

Allen has gone deep before. On four weeks' notice he took over de Ridder from round two, and in round four he shot straight away and lifted him to the mat.

How we see it unfolding

The first two rounds should look like Duncan's fights. He kicks the lead leg, keeps Allen at the end of that reach, and throws a spinning shot when Allen leans in. Allen's jab can win exchanges, but range is where Duncan has done his best work.

Allen needs a takedown early, even a short one, to make Duncan think about the shot. If he lands two in the first ten minutes, the middle rounds open up for the arm-triangle and the back. If his shots get stuffed the way Imavov stuffed them, he is likely behind going into rounds four and five.

The clinch problem

Allen often presses opponents to the fence before he shoots. That is also where Duncan does his quietest damage. Against Pulyaev he had 336 seconds of control without a takedown, almost all of it pinning him on the fence, where he kept landing knees to the thigh.

Knees are his first answer when someone closes in. He tried jumping knees against Cannonier's single leg, though Cannonier kept hold of him. On the way in, a flying knee to the body visibly hurt Dolidze.

Allen leans on the single leg, the shot Imavov kept stuffing. If he reaches for it slowly from the clinch, the place where he expects to be winning could cost him the most.

Our lean

Our model works only from fight stats and never sees the odds. It has Duncan at 62%, a fair bit higher than the market's 44%. The price has drifted his way since it opened.

We lean Duncan, narrowly and most likely on the cards. He is the more efficient striker, and strong grapplers have taken him down without beating him. Allen's wrestling has also failed against the better defenders he has met. His two recent striking wins were dead even on volume, while Duncan tends to out-land people by wide margins.

What would flip it is Allen getting to Duncan's back the way Dolidze did, but in round one instead of round three. With 20 more minutes to work and a real submission threat, he would have time to finish it.