UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Results, closing odds and the model's pre-fight numbers

Sat, Jul 25, 202612 fights · 1 won by the underdog

UFC Fight Night results

All 12 fights

Main event Magomed Ankalaev def. Bogdan Guskov KO/TKO, round 5 (2:41) · the closing line gave Magomed Ankalaev 81%

Favourites won11 of 12

Upsets1

KO/TKO5

Submissions3

Decisions4

Upsets

Biggest first. The percentage is the winner's chance at the closing line, with the bookmakers' margin removed.

Muhammad Saidov def. Dustin Jacoby KO/TKO, round 2 (4:49) · 38% at the close

Bonuses

ufc.com hasn't posted the bonuses yet.

Model against market

The fights where our model and the closing line picked different winners. They split on 3; the model was right on 0.

Ramazan Temirov def. Steve Erceg Market right · model 41%, close 51% Rizvan Kuniev def. Tyrell Fortune Market right · model 50%, close 73% Abubakar Vagaev def. Saygid Izagakhmaev Market right · model 31%, close 64%

Every result

Close: the chance the closing line gave the winner. Model: the chance our stats-only model gave before the fight.

Main Card

Magomed Ankalaev def. Bogdan GuskovKO/TKO, round 5 (2:41) CLOSE81% MODEL76% Ramazan Temirov def. Steve ErcegKO/TKO, round 1 (4:21) CLOSE51% MODEL41% Magomed Zaynukov def. Damian Rzepeckidecision, 3 rounds CLOSE69% MODEL56% Rizvan Kuniev def. Tyrell FortuneKO/TKO, round 3 (1:12) CLOSE73% MODEL50% Abubakar Vagaev def. Saygid Izagakhmaevdecision, 3 rounds CLOSE64% MODEL31%

Prelims

Valter Walker def. Thomas Petersensubmission, round 1 (1:32) CLOSE63% MODEL71% Muhammad Saidov def. Dustin JacobyKO/TKO, round 2 (4:49)Underdog won CLOSE38% MODEL— Sam Patterson def. Santiago PonzinibbioKO/TKO, round 2 (3:06) CLOSE81% MODEL79% Axel Sola def. Ismael Bonfimsubmission, round 1 (4:44) CLOSE64% MODEL58% Magomed Tuchalov def. Brendson Ribeirodecision, 3 rounds CLOSE86% MODEL71% Nurullo Aliev def. Mike Davisdecision, 3 rounds CLOSE67% MODEL80% Abdul Hussein def. Cody Gibsonsubmission, round 3 (3:07) CLOSE83% MODEL60%

UFC Fight Night recap

Magomed Ankalaev beat Bogdan Guskov by KO/TKO, round 5 (2:41) in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov on Saturday, July 25, 2026.

Favourites won 11 of the 12 fights with closing odds. The biggest upset was Muhammad Saidov over Dustin Jacoby: the closing line gave Muhammad Saidov a 38% chance. By method: 5 knockouts, 3 submissions and 4 decisions.

The Cage Oracle model and the betting market disagreed on 3 fights; the model was right on 0.

Questions and answers

Who won the main event of UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov?

Magomed Ankalaev beat Bogdan Guskov by KO/TKO, round 5 (2:41).

What were the upsets at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov?

Muhammad Saidov over Dustin Jacoby (38% at the close).

When was UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov?

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov took place on Saturday, July 25, 2026.