UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Results, closing odds and the model's pre-fight numbers

Sat, Aug 22, 202613 fights · 2 won by the underdog

UFC Fight Night results

All 13 fights

Main event Gregory Rodrigues def. Anthony Hernandez Decision - Unanimous · the closing line gave Gregory Rodrigues 96%

Favourites won11 of 13

Upsets2

KO/TKO8

Submissions2

Decisions3

Upsets

Biggest first. The percentage is the winner's chance at the closing line, with the bookmakers' margin removed.

MarQuel Mederos def. Mason Jones KO/TKO · 20% at the close (+375) Jamall Emmers def. Lerryan Douglas KO/TKO · 23% at the close (+310)

Bonuses

ufc.com hasn't posted the bonuses yet.

Model against market

The fights where our model and the closing line picked different winners. They split on 3; the model was right on 0.

Gregory Rodrigues def. Anthony Hernandez Market right · model 34%, close 96% Chris Padilla def. Nasrat Haqparast Market right · model 48%, close 93% Stan Dorsainvil def. Gauge Young Market right · model 27%, close 70%

Every result

Close: the chance the closing line gave the winner. Model: the chance our stats-only model gave before the fight.

Main Card

Gregory Rodrigues def. Anthony HernandezDecision - Unanimous CLOSE96% MODEL34% Vitor Petrino def. Serghei SpivacDecision - Unanimous CLOSE57% MODEL53% Reinier de Ridder def. Roman DolidzeKO/TKO CLOSE92% MODEL61% MarQuel Mederos def. Mason JonesKO/TKOUnderdog won CLOSE20% MODEL32% Carli Judice def. Jeisla ChavesKO/TKO CLOSE84% MODEL54% Anthony Wint def. Terrance ChatmanSubmission CLOSE87% MODEL53%

Prelims

Jamall Emmers def. Lerryan DouglasKO/TKOUnderdog won CLOSE23% MODEL48% Shamil Gaziev def. Kennedy NzechukwuKO/TKO CLOSE54% MODEL57% Chris Padilla def. Nasrat HaqparastSubmission CLOSE93% MODEL48% Marcio Barbosa def. Ryan KuseKO/TKO CLOSE87% MODEL70% Stan Dorsainvil def. Gauge YoungDecision - Unanimous CLOSE70% MODEL27% Jackson McVey def. Wes SchultzKO/TKO CLOSE76% MODEL56% Shanelle Dyer def. Elise ReedKO/TKO CLOSE97% MODEL80%

UFC Fight Night recap

Gregory Rodrigues beat Anthony Hernandez by Decision - Unanimous in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues on Saturday, August 22, 2026.

Favourites won 11 of the 13 fights with closing odds. The biggest upset was MarQuel Mederos over Mason Jones: the closing line gave MarQuel Mederos a 20% chance (+375). In all, 2 underdogs won. By method: 8 knockouts, 2 submissions and 3 decisions.

The Cage Oracle model and the betting market disagreed on 3 fights; the model was right on 0.

Questions and answers

Who won the main event of UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues?

Gregory Rodrigues beat Anthony Hernandez by Decision - Unanimous.

What were the upsets at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues?

MarQuel Mederos over Mason Jones (20% at the close) and Jamall Emmers over Lerryan Douglas (23% at the close).

When was UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues?

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues took place on Saturday, August 22, 2026.