UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

Results, closing odds and the model's pre-fight numbers

Sat, Aug 15, 202612 fights · 3 won by the underdog

UFC 330 results

All 12 fights

Main event Islam Makhachev def. Ian Machado Garry decision, 5 rounds · the closing line gave Islam Makhachev 74%

Favourites won9 of 12

Upsets3

KO/TKO5

Submissions3

Decisions4

Upsets

Biggest first. The percentage is the winner's chance at the closing line, with the bookmakers' margin removed.

Jeremiah Wells def. Myktybek Orolbai submission, round 3 (1:24) · 11% at the close (+750) Chidi Njokuani def. Joel Alvarez decision, 3 rounds · 26% at the close (+275) Neil Magny def. Ramiz Brahimaj KO/TKO, round 2 (3:20) · 43% at the close (+125)

Bonuses

ufc.com hasn't posted the bonuses yet.

Model against market

The fights where our model and the closing line picked different winners. They split on 7; the model was right on 1.

Mackenzie Dern def. Gillian Robertson Market right · model 33%, close 66% Jalin Turner def. Kaue Fernandes Market right · model 37%, close 52% Dustin Stoltzfus def. Mansur Abdul-Malik Market right · model 28%, close 50% Charles Johnson def. Eduardo Chapolin Market right · model 49%, close 52% Tresean Gore def. Vicente Luque Market right · model 29%, close 51% Lucas Fernando def. Rafael Tobias Market right · model 31%, close 72% Neil Magny def. Ramiz Brahimaj Model right · model 57%, close 43%

Every result

Close: the chance the closing line gave the winner. Model: the chance our stats-only model gave before the fight.

Main Card

Islam Makhachev def. Ian Machado Garrydecision, 5 rounds CLOSE74% MODEL72% Mackenzie Dern def. Gillian Robertsondecision, 5 rounds CLOSE66% MODEL33% Jalin Turner def. Kaue FernandesKO/TKO, round 1 (0:39) CLOSE52% MODEL37% Dustin Stoltzfus def. Mansur Abdul-Maliksubmission, round 2 (4:25) CLOSE50% MODEL28% Esteban Ribovics def. Edson BarbozaKO/TKO, round 2 (1:32) CLOSE85% MODEL72%

Prelims

Chidi Njokuani def. Joel Alvarezdecision, 3 roundsUnderdog won CLOSE26% MODEL19% Charles Johnson def. Eduardo Chapolinsubmission, round 3 (1:36) CLOSE52% MODEL49% Donte Johnson def. Eric McConicoKO/TKO, round 1 (1:38) CLOSE74% MODEL83% Tresean Gore def. Vicente Luquedecision, 3 rounds CLOSE51% MODEL29%

Early Prelims

Lucas Fernando def. Rafael TobiasKO/TKO, round 3 (1:10) CLOSE72% MODEL31% Neil Magny def. Ramiz BrahimajKO/TKO, round 2 (3:20)Underdog won CLOSE43% MODEL57% Jeremiah Wells def. Myktybek Orolbaisubmission, round 3 (1:24)Underdog won CLOSE11% MODEL17%

UFC 330 recap

Islam Makhachev beat Ian Machado Garry by decision, 5 rounds in the main event of UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry on Saturday, August 15, 2026.

Favourites won 9 of the 12 fights with closing odds. The biggest upset was Jeremiah Wells over Myktybek Orolbai: the closing line gave Jeremiah Wells a 11% chance (+750). In all, 3 underdogs won. By method: 5 knockouts, 3 submissions and 4 decisions.

The Cage Oracle model and the betting market disagreed on 7 fights; the model was right on 1.

Questions and answers

Who won the main event of UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry?

Islam Makhachev beat Ian Machado Garry by decision, 5 rounds.

What were the upsets at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry?

Jeremiah Wells over Myktybek Orolbai (11% at the close), Chidi Njokuani over Joel Alvarez (26% at the close) and Neil Magny over Ramiz Brahimaj (43% at the close).

When was UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry?

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry took place on Saturday, August 15, 2026.