Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando
Result, odds and stats · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds · Early Prelims
Sat, Aug 15, 2026Odds at the close
Red corner · Underdog
Light Heavyweight
Record
14-2
UFC
0-1
Age
23
Height
6'2"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Record and age going into this fight.
Fight history and price record → Closing lineno-vig, 7 US books
28%72%
Cage Oracle modelstats only, never sees odds
69%31%
The model picked Rafael Tobias; the market favoured Lucas Fernando. The market was right.
Opened +177 / −205, closed +240 / −303. The line moved toward Lucas Fernando since it opened.
Blue corner · Favourite
Record
13-3
UFC
0-0
Age
29
Height
6'3"
Reach
80"
Stance
—
Record and age going into this fight.
Fight history and price record → Fight stats
Rafael TobiasLucas Fernando
Significant strikes13 of 5669 of 115
Knockdowns02
Takedowns1 of 10 of 0
Control time0:550:09
Submission attempts00
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Questions and answers
Who won Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando?
Lucas Fernando beat Rafael Tobias by KO/TKO, round 3 (1:10) on Saturday, August 15, 2026.
Was Lucas Fernando the favourite?
The favourite won. The closing line gave Lucas Fernando a 72% chance.
What were Rafael Tobias and Lucas Fernando's records going into the fight?
Rafael Tobias is 14-2 (0-1 in the UFC). Lucas Fernando is 13-3.