UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Results, closing odds and the model's pre-fight numbers

Sat, Aug 29, 202613 fights · 5 won by the underdog

UFC Fight Night results

All 13 fights

Main event Song Yadong def. Umar Nurmagomedov KO/TKO · the closing line gave Song Yadong 18%

Favourites won8 of 13

Upsets5

KO/TKO8

Submissions2

Decisions3

Upsets

Biggest first. The percentage is the winner's chance at the closing line, with the bookmakers' margin removed.

Song Yadong def. Umar Nurmagomedov KO/TKO · 18% at the close (+440) Hector Santiago def. Lawrence Lui KO/TKO · 25% at the close (+280) Francesco Nuzzi def. Xiao Long KO/TKO · 40% at the close (+140) Denise Gomes def. Yan Xiaonan KO/TKO · 43% at the close (+121) Cam Nelson def. Ding Meng Decision - Unanimous · 43% at the close

Bonuses

ufc.com hasn't posted the bonuses yet.

Model against market

The fights where our model and the closing line picked different winners. They split on 1; the model was right on 1.

Denise Gomes def. Yan Xiaonan Model right · model 68%, close 43%

Every result

Close: the chance the closing line gave the winner. Model: the chance our stats-only model gave before the fight.

Main Card

Song Yadong def. Umar NurmagomedovKO/TKOUnderdog won CLOSE18% MODEL15% Denise Gomes def. Yan XiaonanKO/TKOUnderdog won CLOSE43% MODEL68% Kai Asakura def. AoriqilengKO/TKO CLOSE78% MODEL60% Sumudaerji def. Alex PerezDecision - Unanimous CLOSE65% MODEL50% Liu Ce def. Levi Rodrigues Jr.KO/TKO CLOSE60% MODEL74% Bilal Hasan def. Nilson RojasKO/TKO CLOSE85% MODEL56%

Prelims

Andre Lima def. Namsrai BatbayarSubmission CLOSE70% MODEL65% Rei Tsuruya def. Kevin BorjasSubmission CLOSE85% MODEL72% Sean Woodson def. Jack JenkinsDecision - Split CLOSE57% MODEL62% Francesco Nuzzi def. Xiao LongKO/TKOUnderdog won CLOSE40% MODEL— Hector Santiago def. Lawrence LuiKO/TKOUnderdog won CLOSE25% MODEL— Julia Polastri def. Xiong JingnanKO/TKO CLOSE67% MODEL78% Cam Nelson def. Ding MengDecision - UnanimousUnderdog won CLOSE43% MODEL—

UFC Fight Night recap

Song Yadong beat Umar Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song on Saturday, August 29, 2026.

Favourites won 8 of the 13 fights with closing odds. The biggest upset was Song Yadong over Umar Nurmagomedov: the closing line gave Song Yadong a 18% chance (+440). In all, 5 underdogs won. By method: 8 knockouts, 2 submissions and 3 decisions.

The Cage Oracle model and the betting market disagreed on 1 fight; the model was right on 1.

Questions and answers

Who won the main event of UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song?

Song Yadong beat Umar Nurmagomedov by KO/TKO.

What were the upsets at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song?

Song Yadong over Umar Nurmagomedov (18% at the close), Hector Santiago over Lawrence Lui (25% at the close), Francesco Nuzzi over Xiao Long (40% at the close), Denise Gomes over Yan Xiaonan (43% at the close) and Cam Nelson over Ding Meng (43% at the close).

When was UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song?

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song took place on Saturday, August 29, 2026.