Volkanovski vs Evloev: can the champion's jab keep an unbeaten wrestler off him?

UFC 333 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday, October 24, has two five-round title fights. In the co-main, Petr Yan meets Merab Dvalishvili for a third time, with Yan at 61% in the current market. The main event has no price on our event page yet, and it's the harder fight to call.

Alexander Volkanovski is 38 and 28-4. Movsar Evloev is 32 and 20-0, with ten UFC wins, all of them decisions. The champion wins with volume at range. Evloev has never lost, though he was outlanded in three of his last four fights.

How Volkanovski wins

His two wins over Diego Lopes show the plan. He circles on the outside, pumps the jab, chops at the legs and times a counter right as the opponent steps in. In April 2025 he landed 158 significant strikes to Lopes' 63. In the January rematch it was 98 to 70, and the cards read 49-46, 49-46 and 50-45.

He lands 5.99 significant strikes a minute at 57% accuracy, both above the 90th percentile in our data. Evloev lands 3.91 a minute. If this fight stays standing at range for long stretches, Volkanovski should win most of those minutes.

The worry is what happens when he's pressed. Both of his recent losses came with his back on the fence. Islam Makhachev finished him with a head kick in round one, Ilia Topuria with a right hand in round two. After UFC 314, Sherdog noted he had been dropped in three straight fights. In the rematch, Lopes' counter right hook either dropped him or stumbled him briefly in round three; reports disagree.

How Evloev wins

Evloev lands 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, in the 97th percentile. He spends 36% of his fight time in control. He doesn't hold people down for long. He re-shoots, catches kicks and drags opponents back down each time they stand.

His last fight, against Lerone Murphy in London in March, is the clearest picture of how this could go. Murphy's jab snapped Evloev's head back in round one, and Murphy had the better of round two with counter hooks off the back foot. Evloev answered with right overhands over the guard, a left hook to the body and body kicks. Then, from round three on, he started wrestling.

He went 9 for 10 on takedowns and controlled Murphy for 3:54. By round five Murphy was, in Cageside Press's words, "bloodied and battered," and Evloev took him down again in the final minute. Murphy still outlanded him 89 to 86.

That fight also shows the risk. Evloev lost a point in round four for a second groin kick and won a majority decision, 48-46, 48-46, 47-47. According to MMADecisions, 12 media scorers had it a draw and five had Murphy. None had Evloev winning.

He was outlanded by Arnold Allen (59-51) and Aljamain Sterling (12-8) too, and media scorers split on both fights. His last three wins were all close on the cards.

Who wins where

On the feet, we give Volkanovski a clear edge. He's the more accurate, busier striker, and he's twice beaten Lopes, who troubled Evloev. When Evloev fought a short-notice, debuting Lopes in 2023, Lopes staggered him in round one and hit him again in round two. Evloev did defend well at range against Murphy, though, and his 61% striking defence is in the 90th percentile.

On the mat, it's Evloev. Volkanovski's takedown defence is 69%, close to the middle of the division in our data. Lopes took him down twice in five tries in January. The question isn't whether Evloev gets him down, but how often and for how long.

Allen is the best guide here. He held Evloev to 5 of 17 takedowns with Granby rolls and quick getups, and still lost two rounds on every judge's card. Allen won minutes on the feet, but the judges scored the takedowns.

How we see it going

Early, we expect Volkanovski to win at range with his jab and calf kicks, and to punish Evloev for walking in. Evloev should mix in shots from the first round. He turned caught kicks into takedowns against Murphy and Sterling, so Volkanovski's leg kicks carry a risk.

The middle rounds depend on whether those takedowns stick. If Evloev starts chaining them in round three, as he did against Murphy, rounds that were Volkanovski's on volume become close on the cards. Lopes took the fourth round on CBS's live card in 2025 and on Yahoo's in January. In 2025 Volkanovski had eye trouble mid-fight, and he still outlanded Lopes 39-16 in the fourth.

Cardio shouldn't decide it either way. Volkanovski outlanded Lopes in every round in 2025 and was wrestling him in round five of the rematch. Evloev's best rounds against Murphy were the fourth and fifth, in his first five-round fight in our data.

Volkanovski sounds confident. "I truly do believe after this fight, people will be saying, 'That's one of Alex's best performances we've seen,'" he told Yahoo Sports. Earlier in September, Evloev brushed off Volkanovski's plan to keep it standing. In an MMA Junkie interview quoted by Sherdog, he said: "Whenever I decide to take him down, I will take him down…"

The twist: Volkanovski wrestling Evloev

Volkanovski can wrestle, and Evloev's own takedown defence is only 61%, in the 40th percentile.

Sterling took Evloev down 6 of 8 times at UFC 310 and spent long stretches on his back. In round three, Evloev missed a spinning elbow and lost his balance, which handed Sterling a body lock. Evloev has to come forward to wrestle, and he throws body kicks and the odd flashy strike on the way in.

Volkanovski has done this before. Against Yair Rodriguez in 2023, he caught a kick for one takedown and tripped him down for others. He went 7 for 12 and finished Rodriguez in round three. He also took Lopes down twice in round five of the rematch.

His takedowns have been hard to land lately, though: 1 for 11 and 2 for 7 against Lopes. Rodriguez was a kicker, not a wrestler, so the model for this is Sterling, not him. Still, one late takedown in a close round could steal it from a wrestler who wins on control time.

Our lean

Evloev on the scorecards, narrowly. Volkanovski is the better striker, but Evloev's re-shots and control should win more rounds than they lose. He's also unbeaten and six years younger.

What would flip it: Volkanovski stuffing the early shots and keeping it standing for two or three rounds. Murphy won rounds while it stayed standing, but Evloev barely shot until round three. A clean counter right at the moment Evloev steps in to shoot would do it too. So would another lost point; the deducted point against Murphy turned a unanimous decision into a majority one.

Our model works from fight stats only and never sees the odds. Its number for this fight comes in fight week, on the fight page.