Justin Gaethje vs Dan Hooker
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Justin Gaethje, 77% (about −336 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Lightweight fight over 3 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
How long it goes
As a three-round fight. "2.5 rounds" is halfway through round 3, 7 minutes 30 seconds of fight time; a fight that goes to the judges counts as over.
"Fair" is the American price with no bookmaker margin. The model is trained on when three-round UFC fights actually ended; it has no number for five-round fights.
The model's read over the last year
Justin Gaethje's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.