Valentina Shevchenko vs Zhang Weili
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Valentina Shevchenko, 57% (about −135 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Flyweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili fought today, our model would make Shevchenko a narrow favorite at 57%, about −135 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Zhang the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Shevchenko 60%; today it's 57%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a decision (60%), then a submission (21%), then a knockout (19%).
Valentina Shevchenko is 15-3 in the UFC (26-4 overall); Zhang Weili is 10-3 in the UFC (26-4 overall).
They have met before: Valentina Shevchenko won by decision, 5 rounds (Nov 15, 2025).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Valentina Shevchenko's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Nov 15, 2025 · Valentina Shevchenko won by decision, 5 rounds
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.