Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Valentina Shevchenko, 72% (about −261 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Flyweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Valentina Shevchenko and Manon Fiorot fought today, our model would make Shevchenko a heavy favorite at 72%, about −261 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Fiorot the underdog.
Its read has barely moved over the last year: Shevchenko was at 74% and is at 72% now.
The most likely ending is a decision (65%), then a knockout (24%), then a submission (11%).
Valentina Shevchenko is 15-3 in the UFC (26-4 overall); Manon Fiorot is 8-1 in the UFC (15-2 overall).
They have met before: Valentina Shevchenko won by decision, 5 rounds (May 10, 2025).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Valentina Shevchenko's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
May 10, 2025 · Valentina Shevchenko won by decision, 5 rounds
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.