Valentina Shevchenko vs Erin Blanchfield
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Valentina Shevchenko, 54% (about −119 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Flyweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Valentina Shevchenko and Erin Blanchfield fought today, our model would make Shevchenko a narrow favorite at 54%, about −119 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Blanchfield the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Shevchenko 50%; today it's 54%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a decision (59%), then a knockout (21%), then a submission (20%).
Valentina Shevchenko is 15-3 in the UFC (26-4 overall); Erin Blanchfield is 8-1 in the UFC (14-2 overall).
They have never fought each other.
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Valentina Shevchenko's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.