Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Valentina Shevchenko, 70% (about −238 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Flyweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso fought today, our model would make Shevchenko a clear favorite at 70%, about −238 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Grasso the underdog.
Its read has barely moved over the last year: Shevchenko was at 70% and is at 70% now.
The most likely ending is a decision (66%), then a submission (17%), then a knockout (17%).
Valentina Shevchenko is 15-3 in the UFC (26-4 overall); Alexa Grasso is 9-5 in the UFC (17-5 overall).
They have met before: Alexa Grasso won by submission, round 4 (4:34) (Mar 4, 2023); Valentina Shevchenko won by decision, 5 rounds (Sep 14, 2024).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Valentina Shevchenko's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Mar 4, 2023 · Alexa Grasso won by submission, round 4 (4:34)
Sep 14, 2024 · Valentina Shevchenko won by decision, 5 rounds
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.