Tom Aspinall vs Sergei Pavlovich
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Tom Aspinall, 61% (about −160 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Heavyweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich fought today, our model would make Aspinall a clear favorite at 61%, about −160 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Pavlovich the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Aspinall 71%; today it's 61%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a knockout (74%), then a decision (17%), then a submission (9%).
Tom Aspinall is 8-1 in the UFC (15-3 overall); Sergei Pavlovich is 9-3 in the UFC (21-3 overall).
They have met before: Tom Aspinall won by KO/TKO, round 1 (1:09) (Nov 11, 2023).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Tom Aspinall's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Nov 11, 2023 · Tom Aspinall won by KO/TKO, round 1 (1:09)
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.