Petr Yan vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Umar Nurmagomedov, 81% (about −434 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Bantamweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Petr Yan and Umar Nurmagomedov fought today, our model would make Nurmagomedov a heavy favorite at 81%, about −434 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Yan the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Yan 35%; today it's 19%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a decision (67%), then a knockout (18%), then a submission (14%).
Petr Yan is 12-4 in the UFC (20-5 overall); Umar Nurmagomedov is 8-1 in the UFC (20-1 overall).
They have never fought each other.
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Petr Yan's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.