Petr Yan vs Sean O'Malley
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Sean O'Malley, 51% (about −105 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Bantamweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Petr Yan and Sean O'Malley fought today, our model would call it a coin flip, with the slightest lean to O'Malley (51%).
A year ago it would have given Yan 57%; today it's 49%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a decision (51%), then a knockout (36%), then a submission (13%).
Petr Yan is 12-4 in the UFC (20-5 overall); Sean O'Malley is 12-3 in the UFC (20-3 overall).
They have met before: Sean O'Malley won by decision, 3 rounds (Oct 22, 2022).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Petr Yan's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Oct 22, 2022 · Sean O'Malley won by decision, 3 rounds
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.