Petr Yan vs Cory Sandhagen
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Petr Yan, 75% (about −300 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Bantamweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen fought today, our model would make Yan a heavy favorite at 75%, about −300 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Sandhagen the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Yan 66%; today it's 75%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a decision (66%), then a knockout (22%), then a submission (12%).
Petr Yan is 12-4 in the UFC (20-5 overall); Cory Sandhagen is 11-6 in the UFC (18-7 overall).
They have met before: Petr Yan won by decision, 5 rounds (Oct 30, 2021).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Petr Yan's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Oct 30, 2021 · Petr Yan won by decision, 5 rounds
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.