Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Merab Dvalishvili, 57% (about −131 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Bantamweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley fought today, our model would make Dvalishvili a narrow favorite at 57%, about −131 with no bookmaker margin. That makes O'Malley the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Dvalishvili 66%; today it's 57%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a decision (52%), then a knockout (26%), then a submission (22%).
Merab Dvalishvili is 14-3 in the UFC (21-5 overall); Sean O'Malley is 12-3 in the UFC (20-3 overall).
They have met before: Merab Dvalishvili won by decision, 5 rounds (Sep 14, 2024); Merab Dvalishvili won by submission, round 3 (4:42) (Jun 7, 2025).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Merab Dvalishvili's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Sep 14, 2024 · Merab Dvalishvili won by decision, 5 rounds
Jun 7, 2025 · Merab Dvalishvili won by submission, round 3 (4:42)
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.