Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Mackenzie Dern, 64% (about −177 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Strawweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan fought today, our model would make Dern a clear favorite at 64%, about −177 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Yan the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Dern 46%; today it's 64%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a decision (54%), then a knockout (23%), then a submission (23%).
Mackenzie Dern is 12-5 in the UFC (17-5 overall); Yan Xiaonan is 9-4 in the UFC (19-5 overall).
They have met before: Yan Xiaonan won by decision, 5 rounds (Oct 1, 2022).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Mackenzie Dern's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Oct 1, 2022 · Yan Xiaonan won by decision, 5 rounds
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.