Mackenzie Dern vs Virna Jandiroba
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Mackenzie Dern, 55% (about −123 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Strawweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba fought today, our model would make Dern a narrow favorite at 55%, about −123 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Jandiroba the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Dern 38%; today it's 55%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a decision (59%), then a submission (23%), then a knockout (18%).
Mackenzie Dern is 12-5 in the UFC (17-5 overall); Virna Jandiroba is 9-4 in the UFC (23-4 overall).
They have met before: Mackenzie Dern won by decision, 3 rounds (Dec 12, 2020); Mackenzie Dern won by decision, 5 rounds (Oct 25, 2025).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Mackenzie Dern's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Dec 12, 2020 · Mackenzie Dern won by decision, 3 rounds
Oct 25, 2025 · Mackenzie Dern won by decision, 5 rounds
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.