Kayla Harrison vs Julianna Pena
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Kayla Harrison, 83% (about −491 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Bantamweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Kayla Harrison and Julianna Pena fought today, our model would make Harrison a heavy favorite at 83%, about −491 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Pena the underdog.
Its read has barely moved over the last year: Harrison was at 83% and is at 83% now.
The most likely ending is a decision (45%), then a submission (35%), then a knockout (21%).
Kayla Harrison is 3-0 in the UFC (19-1 overall); Julianna Pena is 8-4 in the UFC (12-6 overall).
They have met before: Kayla Harrison won by submission, round 2 (4:55) (Jun 7, 2025).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Kayla Harrison's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Jun 7, 2025 · Kayla Harrison won by submission, round 2 (4:55)
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.