Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Justin Gaethje, 59% (about −143 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Lightweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett fought today, our model would make Gaethje a narrow favorite at 59%, about −143 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Pimblett the underdog.
Its read has barely moved over the last year: Gaethje was at 61% and is at 59% now.
The most likely ending is a knockout (43%), then a decision (38%), then a submission (19%).
Justin Gaethje is 11-5 in the UFC (28-5 overall); Paddy Pimblett is 8-1 in the UFC (24-4 overall).
They have met before: Justin Gaethje won by decision, 5 rounds (Jan 24, 2026).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Justin Gaethje's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Jan 24, 2026 · Justin Gaethje won by decision, 5 rounds
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.