Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Ilia Topuria, 68% (about −215 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Lightweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria fought today, our model would make Topuria a clear favorite at 68%, about −215 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Gaethje the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Gaethje 23%; today it's 32%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a knockout (52%), then a decision (28%), then a submission (20%).
Justin Gaethje is 11-5 in the UFC (28-5 overall); Ilia Topuria is 9-1 in the UFC (17-1 overall).
They have met before: Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO, round 4 (5:00) (Jun 14, 2026).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Justin Gaethje's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Jun 14, 2026 · Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO, round 4 (5:00)
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.