Justin Gaethje vs Arman Tsarukyan
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Arman Tsarukyan, 64% (about −174 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Lightweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Justin Gaethje and Arman Tsarukyan fought today, our model would make Tsarukyan a clear favorite at 64%, about −174 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Gaethje the underdog.
Its read has barely moved over the last year: Gaethje was at 35% and is at 36% now.
The most likely ending is a decision (46%), then a knockout (33%), then a submission (21%).
Justin Gaethje is 11-5 in the UFC (28-5 overall); Arman Tsarukyan is 10-2 in the UFC (23-3 overall).
They have never fought each other.
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Justin Gaethje's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.