Jon Jones vs Tom Aspinall
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Jon Jones, 54% (about −116 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Heavyweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall fought today, our model would make Jones a narrow favorite at 54%, about −116 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Aspinall the underdog.
Its read has barely moved over the last year: Jones was at 53% and is at 54% now.
The most likely ending is a knockout (46%), then a decision (42%), then a submission (12%).
Jon Jones is 22-1 in the UFC (22-2 overall); Tom Aspinall is 8-1 in the UFC (15-3 overall).
They have never fought each other.
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Jon Jones's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.