Islam Makhachev vs Michael Morales
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Islam Makhachev, 70% (about −232 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Welterweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Islam Makhachev and Michael Morales fought today, our model would make Makhachev a clear favorite at 70%, about −232 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Morales the underdog.
Its read has barely moved over the last year: Makhachev was at 69% and is at 70% now.
The most likely ending is a knockout (52%), then a decision (27%), then a submission (20%).
Islam Makhachev is 18-1 in the UFC (29-1 overall); Michael Morales is 7-0 in the UFC (19-0 overall).
They have never fought each other.
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Islam Makhachev's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.