Islam Makhachev vs Ilia Topuria
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Islam Makhachev, 78% (about −350 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Lightweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria fought today, our model would make Makhachev a heavy favorite at 78%, about −350 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Topuria the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Makhachev 63%; today it's 78%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a decision (41%), then a knockout (36%), then a submission (23%).
Islam Makhachev is 18-1 in the UFC (29-1 overall); Ilia Topuria is 9-1 in the UFC (17-1 overall).
They have never fought each other.
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Islam Makhachev's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.