Islam Makhachev vs Carlos Prates
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Islam Makhachev, 90% (about −933 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Welterweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Islam Makhachev and Carlos Prates fought today, our model would make Makhachev a heavy favorite at 90%, about −933 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Prates the underdog.
Its read has barely moved over the last year: Makhachev was at 91% and is at 90% now.
The most likely ending is a knockout (40%), then a decision (31%), then a submission (30%).
Islam Makhachev is 18-1 in the UFC (29-1 overall); Carlos Prates is 7-1 in the UFC (24-7 overall).
They have never fought each other.
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Islam Makhachev's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.