Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Ilia Topuria, 85% (about −557 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Lightweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway fought today, our model would make Topuria a heavy favorite at 85%, about −557 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Holloway the underdog.
Its read has barely moved over the last year: Topuria was at 84% and is at 85% now.
The most likely ending is a decision (47%), then a knockout (40%), then a submission (13%).
Ilia Topuria is 9-1 in the UFC (17-1 overall); Max Holloway is 24-9 in the UFC (28-9 overall).
They have met before: Ilia Topuria won by KO/TKO, round 3 (1:34) (Oct 26, 2024).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Ilia Topuria's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Oct 26, 2024 · Ilia Topuria won by KO/TKO, round 3 (1:34)
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.