Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Alexander Volkanovski, 66% (about −194 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Featherweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes fought today, our model would make Volkanovski a clear favorite at 66%, about −194 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Lopes the underdog.
A year ago it would have given Volkanovski 72%; today it's 66%. The number moves as both careers go on: new fights, layoffs and age.
The most likely ending is a decision (50%), then a knockout (37%), then a submission (13%).
Alexander Volkanovski is 15-3 in the UFC (28-4 overall); Diego Lopes is 7-3 in the UFC (28-8 overall).
They have met before: Alexander Volkanovski won by decision, 5 rounds (Apr 12, 2025); Alexander Volkanovski won by decision, 5 rounds (Jan 31, 2026).
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Alexander Volkanovski's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
They've met before
Apr 12, 2025 · Alexander Volkanovski won by decision, 5 rounds
Jan 31, 2026 · Alexander Volkanovski won by decision, 5 rounds
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.