Alexander Volkanovski vs Arnold Allen
Any two UFC fighters, as our model sees them today. It works from fight stats only and never sees the odds.
The model picks Alexander Volkanovski, 64% (about −181 with no bookmaker margin).
Scored as a Featherweight fight over 5 rounds (worked out from their recent fights; you can change it below).
The model's read
If Alexander Volkanovski and Arnold Allen fought today, our model would make Volkanovski a clear favorite at 64%, about −181 with no bookmaker margin. That makes Allen the underdog.
Its read has barely moved over the last year: Volkanovski was at 65% and is at 64% now.
The most likely ending is a decision (55%), then a knockout (37%), then a submission (8%).
Alexander Volkanovski is 15-3 in the UFC (28-4 overall); Arnold Allen is 12-3 in the UFC (21-4 overall).
They have never fought each other.
How it would end
If they fought today, how the model thinks the fight would finish, whoever wins it.
The model's read over the last year
Alexander Volkanovski's chance if the fight had happened on each date, using only what was known about both fighters by then. It moves as fights, layoffs and birthdays happen.
Tale of the tape
Career numbers are per UFC fight time. Records and ages are as of today.
The model doesn't know about injuries, camp news, weight cuts or the betting line. For a fight that's actually booked, the fight page puts its number next to the odds from every book.