Model rankings

The UFC's own champion and top 15 in each division, re-ordered by our model. Every fighter is scored against every other fighter in the division and ranked by their average chance of winning.

Ranking of Aug 4, 2026. "UFC" is where the UFC ranks them; the arrows are movement since our previous ranking.

Flyweight

15 contenders

#FighterScoreUFCMove

CJoshua Van65%C

1Asu Almabayev59%5–

2Tatsuro Taira58%4–

3Manel Kape57%2–

4Kyoji Horiguchi54%8–

5Alexandre Pantoja52%1▲ 2

6Ramazan Temirov49%7▼ 1

7Brandon Moreno48%10▼ 1

8Lone'er Kavanagh48%6–

9Mitch Raposo47%12–

10Amir Albazi47%9▲ 1

11Sumudaerji47%13▼ 1

12Alessandro Costa46%14▲ 1

13Alex Perez44%15▼ 1

14Brandon Royval44%3–

15Kevin Borjas41%11–

Bantamweight

15 contenders

#FighterScoreUFCMove

CPetr Yan61%C

1Umar Nurmagomedov67%2–

2Sean O'Malley60%3–

3Merab Dvalishvili58%1▲ 1

4Farid Basharat54%9▼ 1

5Mario Bautista53%4–

6David Martinez52%7–

7Song Yadong49%6▲ 1

8Montel Jackson47%15▲ 1

9Bryce Mitchell47%14▼ 2

10Raoni Barcelos44%8–

11Charles Jourdain43%13▲ 3

12Cory Sandhagen43%5–

13Marcus McGhee42%10▼ 2

14Aiemann Zahabi41%12▼ 1

15Deiveson Figueiredo37%11–

Featherweight

15 contenders

#FighterScoreUFCMove

CAlexander Volkanovski58%C

1Movsar Evloev65%1–

2Aljamain Sterling56%4▲ 1

3Kevin Vallejos54%10▼ 1

4Youssef Zalal51%8–

5Jean Silva51%6▲ 10

6Lerone Murphy50%3▼ 1

7Jose Delgado50%14▼ 1

8Diego Lopes49%2▲ 1

9Arnold Allen49%5▼ 2

10Aaron Pico47%13▼ 2

11Steve Garcia46%12▲ 2

12Joanderson Brito45%15▼ 1

13Nathaniel Wood45%9▲ 1

14Melquizael Costa44%11▼ 4

15Pat Sabatini43%7▼ 3

Lightweight

15 contenders

#FighterScoreUFCMove

CJustin Gaethje52%C

1Arman Tsarukyan65%2–

2Ilia Topuria64%1–

3Quillan Salkilld57%9–

4Charles Oliveira54%3▲ 9

5Mateusz Gamrot52%6▼ 1

6Benoit Saint Denis52%8▼ 1

7Paddy Pimblett50%5▼ 1

8Max Holloway48%4▲ 3

9Grant Dawson48%15▼ 2

10Tom Nolan47%11–

11Mauricio Ruffy47%10▼ 3

12Tofiq Musayev46%14—

13Rafael Fiziev45%13▼ 1

14Renato Moicano40%7–

15Dan Hooker29%12–

Welterweight

15 contenders

#FighterScoreUFCMove

CIslam Makhachev70%C

1Michael Morales58%3–

2Ian Machado Garry57%2▲ 1

3Gabriel Bonfim56%6▼ 1

4Yaroslav Amosov54%14–

5Sean Brady53%5–

6Carlos Prates50%1▲ 1

7Jack Della Maddalena50%4▼ 1

8Uros Medic47%10–

9Mike Malott46%12–

10Michael Page44%13–

11Kamaru Usman43%11▲ 2

12Joaquin Buckley42%9▼ 1

13Leon Edwards39%8▼ 1

14Belal Muhammad38%7–

15Kevin Holland37%15—

Middleweight

15 contenders

#FighterScoreUFCMove

CSean Strickland53%C

1Khamzat Chimaev61%1–

2Dricus Du Plessis58%2▲ 1

3Ikram Aliskerov55%11▼ 1

4Nassourdine Imavov53%3▲ 1

5Anthony Hernandez53%7▼ 1

6Christian Leroy Duncan52%10–

7Bo Nickal50%12–

8Joe Pyfer49%4▲ 2

9Caio Borralho49%6▼ 1

10Brendan Allen47%5▲ 1

11Nursulton Ruziboev46%14▼ 2

12Abus Magomedov46%13–

13Gregory Rodrigues44%9–

14Reinier de Ridder44%15—

15Israel Adesanya40%8–

Light Heavyweight

15 contenders

#FighterScoreUFCMove

CCarlos Ulberg55%C

1Magomed Ankalaev66%2–

2Navajo Stirling56%7–

3Paulo Costa52%4▲ 4

4Azamat Murzakanov52%9–

5Iwo Baraniewski52%15—

6Muhammad Saidov52%14▼ 3

7Bogdan Guskov50%10▲ 1

8Alex Pereira50%1▼ 2

9Jiri Prochazka50%3▼ 4

10Dominick Reyes49%8▼ 1

11Robert Whittaker47%11▼ 1

12Johnny Walker43%12▼ 1

13Jamahal Hill42%5▼ 1

14Alonzo Menifield34%13▼ 1

15Khalil Rountree Jr.34%6▼ 1

Heavyweight

15 contenders

#FighterScoreUFCMove

CTom Aspinall58%C

1Sergei Pavlovich60%3–

2Ciryl Gane57%1–

3Valter Walker53%8▲ 1

4Josh Hokit53%6▼ 1

5Mario Pinto52%13▲ 1

6Alexander Volkov52%2▼ 1

7Rizvan Kuniev50%5▲ 1

8Vitor Petrino50%11▼ 1

9Serghei Spivac49%9–

10Waldo Cortes Acosta48%7▲ 2

11Curtis Blaydes47%10▲ 2

12Mick Parkin47%14▼ 1

13Brando Pericic47%12▼ 3

14Alex Pereira43%4–

15Ryan Spann31%15–

Women's Strawweight

15 contenders

#FighterScoreUFCMove

CMackenzie Dern48%C

1Zhang Weili61%1–

2Fatima Kline56%6▲ 1

3Tatiana Suarez56%3▼ 1

4Gillian Robertson55%4▲ 1

5Virna Jandiroba54%2▲ 1

6Alexia Thainara53%10▼ 2

7Denise Gomes52%8▲ 1

8Loopy Godinez50%12▲ 1

9Jaqueline Amorim50%14▼ 2

10Talita Alencar47%15▲ 1

11Piera Rodriguez47%7▼ 1

12Tabatha Ricci44%13▲ 1

13Yan Xiaonan44%5▲ 2

14Amanda Lemos43%11–

15Mizuki43%9▼ 3

Women's Flyweight

15 contenders

#FighterScoreUFCMove

CValentina Shevchenko64%C

1Erin Blanchfield62%4–

2Zhang Weili57%5▲ 3

3Natalia Silva56%1▼ 1

4Maycee Barber55%9▼ 1

5Manon Fiorot54%2▼ 1

6Rose Namajunas50%8▲ 3

7Casey O'Neill49%15▼ 1

8Alexa Grasso49%3▲ 2

9Wang Cong48%6▼ 2

10Miranda Maverick48%11▼ 2

11Eduarda Moura46%14–

12Tracy Cortez44%10–

13Karine Silva42%13–

14Jasmine Jasudavicius42%7–

15JJ Aldrich35%12–

Women's Bantamweight

15 contenders

#FighterScoreUFCMove

CKayla Harrison55%C

1Luana Santos58%3–

2Norma Dumont55%2–

3Joselyne Edwards54%1▲ 3

4Ailin Perez54%4▼ 1

5Jacqueline Cavalcanti54%7▼ 1

6Bia Mesquita52%11▼ 1

7Michelle Montague50%8–

8Karol Rosa48%10▲ 3

9Melissa Croden48%9▼ 1

10Klaudia Sygula48%15▼ 1

11Yana Santos44%6▼ 1

12Daria Zhelezniakova44%13–

13Macy Chiasson44%12▲ 1

14Julianna Pena43%5▼ 1

15Raquel Pennington41%14–

A fighter with only a few UFC fights has their score pulled toward 50% (the score shown is after that), so a short record can't top a division on one great night. Fighters outside the UFC's top 15 aren't scored, however good the model thinks they are. A UFC rank shown in gold is three or more places from the model's.