Justin Gaethje vs Dan Hooker
Will it go past 2.5 rounds? Any two fighters in a three-round fight, from a model trained on when UFC fights actually end. It never sees the odds.
Over or under 2.5 roundsLightweight, 3 rounds
47% over53% under
The model leans under: 53% that Justin Gaethje vs Dan Hooker ends before the halfway point of round 3. Who wins →
Where it ends
As a three-round fight. "2.5 rounds" is halfway through round 3, 7 minutes 30 seconds of fight time; a fight that goes to the judges counts as over.
Over 2.5 rounds
47%
+115 fair
Under 2.5 rounds
53%
−115 fair
Over 1.5 rounds
60%
−152 fair
Under 1.5 rounds
40%
+152 fair
Ends before 1.5 rounds · 40%
Between 1.5 and 2.5 · 14%
Past 2.5, or the judges · 47%
"Fair" is the American price with no bookmaker margin. The model is trained on when three-round UFC fights actually ended; it has no number for five-round fights.