UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Results, closing odds and the model's pre-fight numbers

Sat, Jul 11, 202614 fights · 3 won by the underdog

UFC 329 results

All 14 fights

Main event Max Holloway def. Conor McGregor KO/TKO, round 1 (1:09) · the closing line gave Max Holloway 71%

Favourites won11 of 14

Upsets3

KO/TKO8

Submissions3

Decisions3

Upsets

Biggest first. The percentage is the winner's chance at the closing line, with the bookmakers' margin removed.

Brandon Royval def. Lone'er Kavanagh submission, round 3 (3:40) · 32% at the close (+195) Mario Bautista def. Cory Sandhagen decision, 3 rounds · 43% at the close (+120) Paddy Pimblett def. Benoit Saint Denis submission, round 1 (0:52) · 48% at the close (+100)

Bonuses

ufc.com hasn't posted the bonuses yet.

Model against market

The fights where our model and the closing line picked different winners. They split on 2; the model was right on 1.

Mario Bautista def. Cory Sandhagen Model right · model 55%, close 43% Robert Whittaker def. Nikita Krylov Market right · model 31%, close 53%

Every result

Close: the chance the closing line gave the winner. Model: the chance our stats-only model gave before the fight.

Main Card

Max Holloway def. Conor McGregorKO/TKO, round 1 (1:09) CLOSE71% MODEL70% Paddy Pimblett def. Benoit Saint Denissubmission, round 1 (0:52)Underdog won CLOSE48% MODEL27% Mario Bautista def. Cory Sandhagendecision, 3 roundsUnderdog won CLOSE43% MODEL55% Brandon Royval def. Lone'er Kavanaghsubmission, round 3 (3:40)Underdog won CLOSE32% MODEL40% King Green def. Terrance McKinneyKO/TKO, round 1 (4:59) CLOSE52% MODEL65%

Prelims

Robert Whittaker def. Nikita KrylovKO/TKO, round 3 (1:01) CLOSE53% MODEL31% Gable Steveson def. Elisha EllisonKO/TKO, round 1 (2:31) CLOSE90% MODEL65% Adrian Yanez def. Cody GarbrandtKO/TKO, round 1 (2:47) CLOSE77% MODEL52% Luke Riley def. Kai Kamaka IIIKO/TKO, round 1 (3:03) CLOSE69% MODEL78%

Early Prelims

Wang Cong def. Tracy Cortezdecision, 3 rounds CLOSE53% MODEL51% Damian Pinas def. Cesar AlmeidaKO/TKO, round 1 (4:44) CLOSE69% MODEL81% Farid Basharat def. John Garzadecision, 3 rounds CLOSE84% MODEL85% Ryan Gandra def. Zach ReeseKO/TKO, round 1 (1:15) CLOSE55% MODEL68% Alessandro Costa def. Cody Durdensubmission, round 2 (2:19) CLOSE67% MODEL66%

UFC 329 recap

Max Holloway beat Conor McGregor by KO/TKO, round 1 (1:09) in the main event of UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 on Saturday, July 11, 2026.

Favourites won 11 of the 14 fights with closing odds. The biggest upset was Brandon Royval over Lone'er Kavanagh: the closing line gave Brandon Royval a 32% chance (+195). In all, 3 underdogs won. By method: 8 knockouts, 3 submissions and 3 decisions.

The Cage Oracle model and the betting market disagreed on 2 fights; the model was right on 1.

Questions and answers

Who won the main event of UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2?

Max Holloway beat Conor McGregor by KO/TKO, round 1 (1:09).

What were the upsets at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2?

Brandon Royval over Lone'er Kavanagh (32% at the close), Mario Bautista over Cory Sandhagen (43% at the close) and Paddy Pimblett over Benoit Saint Denis (48% at the close).

When was UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2?

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 took place on Saturday, July 11, 2026.